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SEST 734: AI and National Security

This guide will help you locate open-source historical data for the tech policy forecasting scenario you've been assigned.

The Assignment

This guide is intended to provide a strong starting point for your final project research, helping you identify key predictors and metrics for your scenario and locate quality historical and forecast data on your topic.

Assignment description: "For your final project, I will ask you to form groups and do a scenario forecast about a particular AI policy challenge. I will assign the groups and provide each one with four possible scenarios during the week of October 17-21. In your groups, you will write-up a short qualitative assessment of each scenario, identify key predictors and metrics, collect historical and forecast data, estimate trend departure, and conclude with your assessment of which scenario is most likely and the relevant policy implications and risk mitigations. Your final paper should be no longer than 4,500 words (excluding tables/figures)."

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